One of the hidden valuation levers for Adyen is the relative dearth of SBC. Net that out if SQ or PYPL, or pretty much any US founded company and that alone supports a much higher “headline” multiple relative to growth. That said agree it isn’t cheap here, but more like 8-9pct irr on my simple dcf math.
Big Adyen bulls have proclaimed it the LT winner. They are asking themselves when it will do $10b EUR of EBITDA? 2030? 2032? 2034? 2036? And then they discount that back after slapping a high multiple (e.g. 30x+) on it. Aggressive for sure, but that IRR range is 9-15% from here depending on your view.
One of the hidden valuation levers for Adyen is the relative dearth of SBC. Net that out if SQ or PYPL, or pretty much any US founded company and that alone supports a much higher “headline” multiple relative to growth. That said agree it isn’t cheap here, but more like 8-9pct irr on my simple dcf math.
Big Adyen bulls have proclaimed it the LT winner. They are asking themselves when it will do $10b EUR of EBITDA? 2030? 2032? 2034? 2036? And then they discount that back after slapping a high multiple (e.g. 30x+) on it. Aggressive for sure, but that IRR range is 9-15% from here depending on your view.