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I used to own Facebook for the past 4 years (sold last year Sep). Even during Cambridge Analytica scandal, I tripled down as it went lower and for a year it stood as 76% of my portfolio from around 25%. Now the reason I did it because I had higher conviction for the company, i thought CA issue was overblown and stock has been sold off. Now, I can not say the same for FB today. not from valuation point of view, Revenue g YoY is great, margins are great. even today I think it is undervalued. But I have a principle which is don't own anything that is a target in the eye of lawmakers and are susceptible to politics (just like oil & gas companies) Today FB is more exposed to their wrath than anytime in history, now, Dems will control the power for at least 2-4 years, risks are at ATH.(maybe that is why its undervalued). Also, another reason is I used to use all products of Facebook. Now, as someone in 29 yoa, I am fed up with Instagram, FB etc. I find more value in twitter, reddit and tiktok is more joyful than Instagram. Whatever company's stock I bought I test its products before I purchase the stock (even if its SaaS, cloud, and even if I am not a company, I do my best to get more exposure by trying to see how it performs as a product), FB products are not what they were used to be. So, I might be biased here, not sure, but if I dont enjoy the product anymore, especially, I find other more enjoyable, its time to move on.

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Nice read, but would humbly disagree on a couple of aspects:

1. Disengagement from FB would require a massive behavioral shift at once: On the contrary, I believe the nature of network moats is a very unstable equilibrium. The same word of mouth publicity that got everyone to adopt a network also accelerates everyone leaving a network. It would require just a handful of really strong influencers (handful being a relative term to its 3M MAUs) to promote FB as an out-of-fashion fad for a whole host of passive "opinion-takers" o follow suit.

2. FB is going to disrupt e-Bay, Shopify: I don't believe that is the case. Catering to the long-tail goes in cycles. First, you find general-purpose platforms such as FB, Google cater to long-tail businesses by helping them set up storefronts. But gradually, these same long-tail communities become big enough to support vertical communities focused on creating a specific value-add. That is where general-purpose platforms like FB can't 'do everything for everyone at scale'.

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